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Employment (Tweets and Further Detail)

February 1, 2013 Leave a comment

Here are my post-Employment tweets, summarized and expanded on:

  • Employment Report: Unemp Rate up to 7.923% from 7.849% – the consumer confidence report was the hint that’d happen.
  • Always hard to look at the January Payrolls report especially. In addition to rockin seasonals, you get prior yr revisions.
  • Avg Hourly Earnings +2.1% y/y, faster than any time in 2012. Wages lag inflation so this will be higher than this at year-end.
  • …the bad news is that aggregate inflation will be higher as well.
  • So after the benchmark revisions, avg 2011 payrolls gain was 153k. For 2012: 156k. Today: 157k. Nice stimulus.
  • Nearly 5 years after the recession started, “Not in Labor Force, Want a Job Now” still near the highs.

Here is the BLS chart on the “Not in Labor Force, Want a Job Now” series.

LNS15026639_1884750_1359726408823

And here is a chart (Source: BLS, Bloomberg) showing the trailing 12-months deficit (represented positive) versus Payrolls. You can see why there’s some reason to think the massive spending (blue line) curtailed further job losses in the recession, although it’s important to remember that we don’t know the counterfactual…that is, what would have happened in the absence of spending.

nicestimulus

The graph does not imply that if the government had not run a huge deficit that we would have had continuing job losses, even though that is the tale our elected representatives would like you to believe. Indeed, look at the next chart, which shows the level of the deficit versus the 12-month acceleration/deceleration in job growth, lagged 12 months.

notmuchcorrel

If there seems to be a correlation between big deficits and job market acceleration, it comes mainly from the big swings associated with the teeth of the crisis when the causality may have been going either direction. Take out that big “S” and you have similar jobs growth with huge government and with small government (and you can see that same fact on the prior chart).

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