Archive

Posts Tagged ‘core inflation’

Ugly CPI

September 17, 2014 Leave a comment

Here is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy or (if you’re already following me on Twitter or seeing this elsewhere) subscribe to direct email of my free articles here.

  • Complete shocker of a CPI figure. Core at +0.01%, barely needed any rounding to get to 0.0. Y/y falls to 1.73%. Awful.
  • Zero chance the Fed does anything today, anyway. The doves just need to point to one number and they win.
  • Stocks ought to LOVE this.
  • Core services dropped to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% and core goods to -0.4% from -0.3%.
  • Accelerating major groups: Food/bev. That’s all. 14.9% of basket. Everything else decelerating.
  • I just don’t see, anecdotally, a sudden change in the pricing dynamics in the economy. That’s why this is shocking to me.
  • Primary rents to 3.18% from 3.28%. Owners’ Equiv to 2.68% from 2.72%. Both in contravention of every indicator of market tightness.
  • Apparel goes to 0.0% from +0.3% y/y. That’s where you can see a dollar effect, since apparel is mostly manufactured outside US.
  • Airline fares -2.7% versus -0.2% y/y last month and +4.7% three months ago. It’s only 0.74% of the basket but big moves like that add up.
  • Medical care: 2.09% versus 2.61% y/y. Now THAT is where the surprise comes in. Plunge in ‘hospital and related services.’ to 3.8% vs 5.5%.
  • …we (and everyone else!) expect medical care to bounce back from the sequester-inspired break last year. I still think it will.
  • core inflation ex-housing at 0.91% y/y, lowest since August 2004. Yes, one decade.
  • core inflation ex-housing is now closer to deflation than during the deflation scare. In late 2010 it got to 1.08% y/y.
  • Needless to say our inflation-angst indicator remains at really really low levels.
  • Interestingly, the proportion of CPI subindices w y/y changes more than 2 std dev >0 (measuring broad deflation risk) still high at 38%.
  • To sum up. Awful CPI nbr. Housing dip is temporary & will continue to keep core from declining much. Suspect a lot of this is one-off.
  • …but I thought the same thing last month.
  • Neil Diamond said some days are diamonds, some days are stones. If you run an inflation-focused investment mgr, this is a stone day.
  • Interestingly, Median CPI was unchanged at 2.2% this month. I’d thought it fell too much last month so this makes sense.

I am still breathing heavily after this truly shocking number. This sort of inflation figure, outside of a crisis or post-crisis recovery, is essentially unprecedented. Lower prints happened once in 2010, once in 2008, three times in 2003, and once in 1999. But otherwise, basically not since the 1960s.

The really amazing figure is the core-ex-Housing number of 0.91% y/y. A chart of that (source: Enduring Investments) is below.

corexshelter

There are interesting similarities between the current situation and late 2003, which is the last time that ex-housing inflation flirted with deflation. Between late 2000 and June 2003, money velocity fell 11%, in concert with generally weakening money growth. Velocity fell primarily because of a sharp decline in interest rates from 6% on the 5y note to around 2.25%. The circumstances are similar now: 5y interest rates declined from around 5% to 0.5% from 2006 through mid-2013, accompanied by a 24% decline in money velocity. And voilá, we have weakness in core inflation ex-housing.

The important differences now, though, are twofold. The first is that the absolute levels of money velocity, and of interest rates, are much lower and very unlikely to fall much further – indeed, money velocity is lower than it “should” be for this level of interest rates. And the second is that there is an enormous supply of inert reserves in the system which will be difficult to remove once inflation begins to rise again. The Fed began to increase interest rates in 2004, which helped increase money velocity (and hence, inflation) while it also caused M2 growth to decline to below 4% y/y. Core inflation rose to 3%, but the Fed was basically in control. Today, however, the Fed has no direct control over the money supply because any reserves they remove will be drawn from the “excess” reserves held by banks. This will make it difficult to increase overnight rates except by fiat (and increasing them by setting a floor rate will merely cause money velocity to rise while having no effect on the money supply). So the ‘potential inflation energy’ is much higher than it was in 2003. As an aside, in 2004 I was quite vocal in my opinions that inflation was not about to run away on the upside, which is another key difference!

If you are a tactical inflation trader, today’s CPI figure should make you despise inflation-linked bonds for a few weeks. But they have already taken quite a drubbing this month, with 10-year breakevens falling from 2.27% to 2.08% as I type. It’s okay to watch them fall, tactically, especially if nominal bonds generally rally. But strategically, not much has changed about the inflationary backdrop. I don’t expect airline fares to continue to drop. I don’t expect Medical Care inflation, which has a strong upward bias due to base effects, to plunge further but to return to the 3%-4% range over the next 6-12 months. And Housing inflation slowed slightly this month but remains on course to continue to rise. So, if you are considering your inflation allocations, this is a good time to increase them while markets are dismissive of any possibility of higher prices.

Without a doubt, today’s number – especially following another weak CPI print last month – is a head-scratcher. But there aren’t a lot of downside inflation risks at the moment. Our forecast had been for core (or median) inflation to reach 2.6%-3.0% in 2014. I would say that core CPI isn’t going to get to that level this year with 4 prints left, and even median CPI (which is a better measure right now of the central tendency of inflation, thanks to the aforementioned base effects in medical care, and remained at 2.2% this month) is going to have a harder time reaching that target. I’d lower and narrow the target range for 2014 median inflation to 2.5%-2.8% based on today’s data.

Summary (and Extension) of My Post-CPI Tweets

July 22, 2014 2 comments

Below is a summary (and extension) of my post-CPI tweets today. You can follow me @inflation_guy.

  • CPI +0.3%/+0.1% with y/y core figure dropping to 1.9%. That will be only by a couple hundredths on rounding, but it’s still a decline.
  • Looks like core was 0.129% rounded to 3 decimal places. y/y went from 1.956% to 1.933% so a marginal decline.
  • RT of Bloomberg Markets @themoneygame: Consumer Price Changes By Item http://read.bi/1nx0sUf 
  • Core goods still -0.2%, core services still +2.7%, unchanged from last month. [ed note: I reversed these initially; corrected here]
  • All of this a mild miss for the Street, which was looking for +0.19% or so, but I though the Street was more likely low.
  • Major groups accel: Apparel, Recreation, Educ/Comm, Other (19.7%). Decel: Food/Bev, Transp, Med Care (38.9%), Housing flat.
  • There’s your real story. Recent drivers: medical care, which is a base effect and oddly reversed. That’s temporary. Also>>
  • >>big fall in non-rental/OER parts of housing: insurance, lodging away from home, appliances. Those are not as persistent as rents.
  • Primary rents went to 3.153% from 3.058%; OER unch at 2.640% from 2.638%. The rest will mean-revert.
  • College tuition and fes at 4.142% from 4.001%.
  • 60.5% of all low-level categories accelerating (down from 70.5%). Still broad but not as broad.
  • Actually looks like Median CPI could downtick today.

This is why I try very hard to resist the urge to forecast the monthly CPI, and admonish investors (and even traders) to resist trading on the data. Chairman Yellen is right about this: the data are noisy, so one month can be almost anywhere. This month, there was a reversal in the recent rise in y/y medical care inflation. But that rise was due to base effects, which aren’t going away, so forecasting medical care inflation to continue to accelerate is more a statement of mathematical likelihood than it is an economic forecast. And it’s all the more surprising then when it reverses.

This month’s figure makes it a fair bit harder for my forecast of near-3% for 2014 on core or median inflation to come to pass, although it bears noting that median inflation (even though it may downtick later today) is still within striking distance. Since median is currently the better measure, and will be for much of this year, I won’t back off my forecast yet. Another weak month, though, would cause me to ratchet down the target simply because it becomes harder to hit as time becomes shorter.

However, I expect several months this year will exceed +0.3% on core inflation. And it is worth remembering that core inflation faces easy year-ago comparisons for the rest of the year. In July of last year, the seasonally-adjusted m/m core inflation figure was +0.167%; in August it was +0.138%; in September it was 0.132%; in October +0.124%; in November +0.175%; and in December +0.101%. So, even if core inflation only averages +0.2% for the rest of the year, core will still be at 2.3% by year-end. If core inflation averages what it has been for the last four months, we’ll be at 2.4%. What that means is that (a) my forecast of something near 3% doesn’t represent a massive acceleration, although we only have half a year to get there, and (b) anyone forecasting less than 2.3% by year-end is actually forecasting a deceleration in inflation from recent trends.

The breadth indicators also took a mild breather this month, with the proportion of the CPI that is accelerating (looking at low-level categories) dropping to around 60% from around 70% in May. As with the other analysis, however, we should be careful not to read too much into one month since this figure also jumps around a lot. Interestingly, the proportion of categories where the year-on-year change is at least 2 standard deviations above zero – so that we can reject the ‘deflation’ meme for these categories – is basically unchanged from last month at 24%. As the chart below shows, we last saw a level this high in 2006, which is also the last time that core CPI ran at 3%.

twosd

Housing inflation is now back below my model’s projections, inflation breadth is still high, and the persistent parts of CPI are maintaining their levels or advancing while a few of the skittish parts are retreating (or at least not yet converging to the mean). There is nothing here to indicate that the three months of accelerating core CPI were the aberration; in fact to me it appears that the June figure was the aberration. That question will be answered over the balance of the year. In the meantime, inflation markets remain priced at levels so low that even if you’re wrong in betting on higher inflation, you don’t lose much but if you’re right, you do very well. In my view (although admittedly I may be biased), most investors remain significantly underweight protection against this particular risk.

Categories: CPI Tags: ,

Dog Bites Man: Markets Still Not Making Sense

July 7, 2014 5 comments

The Employment number these days is sometimes less interesting than the response of the markets to the number over the ensuing few days. That may or may not be the case here. Thursday’s Employment report was stronger than expected, although right in line with the sorts of numbers we have had, and should expect to have, in the middle of an expansion.

12mpayrolls

As the chart illustrates, we have been running at about the rate of 200k per month for the last several years, averaged over a full year. I first pointed out last year that this is about the maximum pace our economy is likely to be able to sustain, although in the bubble-fueled expansion of the late 1990s the average got up to around 280k. So Thursday’s 288k is likely to be either revised lower, or followed by some weaker figures going forward, but is fairly unlikely to be followed by stronger numbers.

This is why the lament about the weak job growth is so interesting. It isn’t really very weak at all, historically. It’s merely that people (that is, economists and politicians) were anticipating that the horrible recession would be followed by an awe-inspiring expansion.

The fact that it has not been is itself informative, although you are unlikely to see economists drawing the interesting conclusion here. That’s because they don’t really understand the question, which is “is U.S. growth unit root?” To remember why this really matters, look back at my article from 2010: “The Root of the Problem.” Quoting from that article:

“what is important to understand is this: if economic output is not unit root but is rather trend-stationary, then over time the economy will tend to return to the trend level of output. If economic output is unit root, then a shock to the economy such as we have experienced will not naturally be followed by a return to the prior level of output.”

In other words, if growth is unit root, then we should expect that expansions should be roughly as robust when they follow economic collapses as when they follow mild downturns. And that is exactly what we are seeing in the steady but uninspiring job growth, and the steady if not-unusual return to normalcy in the Unemployment Rate (once we adjust for the participation rate). So, the data seem to suggest that growth is approximately unit root, which matters because among other things it makes any Keynesian prescriptions problematic – if there is no such thing as “trend growth” then the whole notion of an output gap gets weird. A gap? A gap to what?

Now, it is still interesting to look at how markets reacted. Bonds initially sold off, as would be expected if the Fed cared about the Unemployment Rate or the output gap being closed, but then rallied as (presumably) investors discounted the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to move pre-emptively to restrain inflation in this cycle. Equities, on the other hand, had a knee-jerk selloff on that idea (less Fed accommodation) but then rallied the rest of the day on Thursday before retracing a good part of that gain today. It is unclear to me just what news can actually be better than what is already impounded in stock prices. If the answer is “not very darn much,” then the natural reaction should be for the market to tend to react negatively to news even if it continues to drift higher in the absence of news. But that is counterfactual to what happened on Thursday/Monday. I don’t like to read too much into any day’s trading, but that is interesting.

Commodities were roughly unchanged on Thursday, but fell back strongly today. Well, a 1.2% decline in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (formerly the DJ-UBS Commodity Index) isn’t exactly a rout, but since commodities have been slowly rallying for a while this represents the worst selloff since March. The 5-day selloff in commodities, a lusty 2.4%, is the worst since January. Yes, commodities have been rallying, and yet the year-to-date change in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is only 2% more than the rise in M2 over the same period (5.5% versus 3.5%), which means the terribly oversold condition of commodities – especially when compared to other real assets – has only barely begun to be corrected.

I do not really understand why the mild concern over inflation that developed recently after three alarming CPI reports in a row has vanished so suddenly. We can see it in the commodity decline, and the recent rise in implied core inflation that I have documented recently (see “Awareness of Inflation, But No Fear Yet”) has largely reversed: currently, implied 1 year core inflation is only 2.15%, which is lower than current median inflation – implying that the central tendency of inflation will actually decline from current levels.

I don’t see any reason for such sanguinity. Money supply growth remains around 7%, and y/y credit growth is back around 5%. I am not a Keynesian, and I believe that growth doesn’t matter (much) for inflation, but the recent tightening of labor markets should make a Keynesian believe that inflation is closer, not further away! If one is inclined to give credit in advance to the Federal Reserve, and assume that the Committee will move pre-emptively to restrain inflation – and if you are assuming that core inflation will be lower in a year from where it (or median inflation, which is currently a better measure of “core” inflation) is now, you must be assuming preemption – then I suppose you might think that 2.15% core is roughly the right level.

But even there, one would have to assume that policy could affect inflation instantly. Inflation has momentum, and it takes time for policy – even once implemented, of which there is no sign yet – to have an effect on the trajectory of inflation. Maybe there can be an argument that 2-year forward or 3-year forward core inflation might be restrained by a pre-emptive Fed. But I can’t see that argument for year-ahead inflation.

Of course, markets don’t always have to make sense. We have certainly learned this in spades over the last decade! I suppose that saying markets aren’t making a lot of sense right now is merely a headline of the “dog bites man” variety. The real shocker, the “man bites dog” headline, would be if they started making sense again.

Awareness of Inflation, But No Fear Yet

June 24, 2014 1 comment

Suddenly, there is a bunch of talk about inflation. From analysts like Grant Williams to media outlets like MarketWatch  and the Wall Street Journal (to be sure, the financial media still tell us not to worry about inflation and keep on buying ‘dem stocks, such as Barron’s argues here), and even Wall Street economists like those from Soc Gen and Deutsche Bank…just two name two of many Johnny-come-latelys.

It is a little surprising how rapidly the articles about possibly higher inflation started showing up in the media after we had a bottoming in the core measures. Sure, it was easy to project the bottoming in those core measures if you were paying attention to the base effects and noticing that the measures of central tendency that are more immune to those base effects never decelerated much (see median CPI), but still somehow a lot of people were taken by surprise if the uptick in media stories is any indication.

I actually have an offbeat read of that phenomenon, though. I think that many of these analysts, media outlets, and economists just want to have some record of being on the inflation story at a time they consider early. Interestingly enough, while there is no doubt that the volume of inflation coverage is up in the days since the CPI report, there is still no general alarm. The chart below from Google Trends shows the relative trend in the search term “rising inflation.” It has shown absolutely nothing since the early days of extraordinary central bank intervention.

risinginflationsearch

Now, I don’t really care very much when the fear of inflation broadens. It is the phenomenon of inflation, not the fear of it, which causes the most damage to society. However, there is no doubt that the fear of inflation definitely could cause damage to markets much sooner than inflation itself can. The concern has been rising in narrow pockets of the markets where inflation itself is actually traded, but because we trade headline inflation the information has been obscured. The chart below (source: Enduring Investments) shows the 1-year headline inflation swap, in black, which has risen from about 1.4% to 2.2% since November. But the green line shows the implied core inflation extracted from those swap quotes, and that line has risen from 1.2% in December to 2.6% or so now. That is far more significant – 2.6% core inflation over the next year would mean core PCE would exceed 2% by next spring. This is a very reasonable expectation, but as I said it is still only a narrow part of the market that is willing to bet that way.

coresincedec

If I was long equities – which I am not, as our four-asset-class model currently has only a 7.4% weight in stocks – then I would keep an eye on the search terms and for other anecdotal evidence that inflation fears are starting to actually rise among investors, rather than just being the probably-cynical musings of people who don’t want to be seen as having missed the signs (even if they don’t really believe it).

Deflation, Indeed!

May 15, 2014 2 comments

Today’s post-CPI update is later than usual (normally, on CPI day I ‘tweet’ my impressions as I have them). A prospect meeting got in the way – yes, isn’t it interesting that there is demand for creative inflation-linked solutions?

Probably, after today, this will be a trifle less surprising. Core inflation surprised on the high side. Consensus had been for the month-over-month figure to be +0.1%; instead it printed +0.236%. This pushed the year-on-year core inflation rate to 1.826%, the highest it has been in a year…and yet still the lowest it is likely to be for a very long time.

So, with the wonderful perfection of timing that is only possible from elite policymakers, the Fed has begun to chirp about deflation fears at just exactly the time that core inflation is turning higher. Do recall that core inflation never got below 1.6% – very far from “deflation” – and was only that low because of well-known effects stemming from the impact of the sequester last year on Medicare payments. Median inflation, which eliminates the influence of small outlier decreases (and increases) on the number, scraped as low as 2.0%, and now sits at 2.2%. It has not been higher than that since mid-2012. Median inflation hasn’t been higher than 2.3% since 2009, so it is fair to say that inflation is much closer to the highs of the last five years than to the lows. Deflation, indeed.

A closer view of the subcomponents do not give any less cause for concern. Of the eight major subcomponents, six (Food & Beverages, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, and Education & Communication) accelerated on a year-over-year basis while only two (Housing and “Other”) decelerated.

At first glance, that sounds promising. Housing inflation dropped to 2.5% from 2.8%, and those people who are worried about another housing bust right now will be quick to seize on that deceleration. Housing inflation, which is 41% of the total consumption basket, has been a primary driver of core inflation’s recovery in recent months so a deceleration would be welcome. But a closer look suggests that the number for Housing overstates the ‘deceleration’ case considerably. “Fuels and utilities,” which is 5.2% of the entire consumption basket and about 1/8th of Housing, dropped from 6.8% y/y to 4.2%. That was the entire source of the deceleration in housing. The larger pieces, which are also much more persistent, were higher: Primary rents rose from 2.88% y/y to 3.05% y/y, while Owners’ Equivalent Rent was roughly flat at 2.62% compared to 2.61%. So it is perhaps too early to panic about deflation, since the rise in OER and Primary rents is right on schedule as we have been marking it for some time (see chart below, source Enduring Investments).

updatedOER

Outside of housing, core inflation accelerated as well. Core ex-Shelter rose to 1.16% from 0.90%. The inflation is still significantly in services, as core commodities are still only -0.3% year/year. But that will rise soon, probably starting as soon as next month, based on our proxy measure.

As has been well advertised, the temporary depression in Medical Care inflation growth has officially ended. Now that April 2013 is out of the year/year data, the Medical Care major group saw prices rise 2.42% over the last year compared with 2.17% y/y a month ago. Medicinal drugs are at +1.70% compared with +1.44%. Medical equipment and supplies -1.39% vs -1.53%. Hospital and related services +5.55% vs 4.69%. I don’t see the deflation, do you?

This rise in CPI was broad and deep, with nearly 80% of the lower-level indices seeing increases in the y/y rate. It is hard to find any major component about which I would have to express concern, if I was a Federal Reserve official worried about deflation. The breadth of increase is itself a signal. When some prices go up, it is a change in relative prices and will be considered inflation by some people (those who are sensitive to those prices) and not so much by others. But “inflation” is really about a general rise in prices, in which most goods and services participate. As I mentioned above, not all goods prices are participating but in general most prices are rising and, if this month is any gauge, accelerating.

We should hesitate to read too much into any one month’s inflation number. There is a lot of noise in any economic data, so that it can be hard to discern the signal. I believe that there is enough underlying strength here that this is in fact more signal than noise, though, and so I continue to expect core inflation to accelerate for the balance of the year.

I have no idea how long Fed officials will continue to fret about deflation, nor how long it will take the concern to shift to inflation. I suspect it will take a long time, although the stock market today seems less certain on that point with the S&P at this writing down -1.3%. Curiously bonds, which are clearly overvalued if inflation is not contained, rallied today (although breakevens predictably widened). But I think all markets are safe for some time from the risk that central bankers will develop a concern about inflation that is acute enough to spur them to action. (Not to mention that it isn’t at all clear to me what action they could take that would have an effect on the inflation dynamic in any reasonable time frame given that excess reserves must be drained first before any tightening has teeth). This does not mean that I am sanguine about the prospects for nominal asset classes such as stocks and nominal bonds – but at some point, they won’t need the Fed’s cudgel to persuade them to re-price. When inflation is obvious enough to all, that will be sufficient.

Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

The following is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy.

  • Core CPI +0.12%, a bit lower than expected.
  • Core 1.56% y/y
  • Both core services and core goods decelerated, to 2.2% y/y and -0.4% y/y. This is highly surprising and at odds with leading indicators.
  • Accelerating groups: Food/Bev, Housing, Med Care (63.9%). Decel: Apparel, Transp,Recreation, Educ/Comm (32.7%). “Other” unch
  • Primary rents fell to 2.82% y/y from 2.88%, OER 2.51% from 2.52%.
  • Primary rents probably fell mainly because of the rise in gas prices, which implies the non-energy rent portion is lower.
  • …but that obviously won’t persist. It’s significantly a function of the cold winter. Primary rents will be well into the 3s soon.
  • Household energy was 0.7% y/y at this time last year; now it’s 5.5%. Again, that slows the increase in primary rents
  • Medical Care moved higher again, slowly reversing the sequester-induced decline from last yr. Drugs +1.86% y/y from 0.91% last month.
  • Core ex-housing leaked lower again, to only 0.84% y/y. Lowest since 2004. If you want to worry about deflation, go ahead. I don’t.
  • The Enduring Inflation Angst Index rose to -0.51%, highest since Nov 2011 (but still really low).

I must admit to some mild frustration. Our call for higher primary rents and owners’ equivalent rents has finally been shown to be correct, as these two large components of consumption have been heading higher over the last few months (the lag was 3-4 months longer than is typical). But core inflation, despite this, has stubbornly refused to rise, as a smattering of small-but-important categories – largely in the core goods part of CPI – are weighing on the overall number.

It is also almost comically frustrating that some of the drag on core CPI is happening because of the recent rise in Natural Gas prices, which has increased the imputed energy component of primary rents. As a reminder, the BLS takes a survey of actual rents, but since utilities are often included in rental agreements the BLS subtracts out the changing value of that benefit that the renter gets. So, if your rent last December was $1,000, and your utilities were $100, and your rent this month is still $1,000 but utilities are $125, then the BLS recognizes that you are really paying $25 less for rent. Obviously, this only changes where price increases show up – in this example, overall housing inflation would be zero, but the BLS would show an increase in “Household Energy” of 25% and a decline in “Rent of Primary Residence” of 2.78% (which is -$25/$900). But “Household Energy” is a non-core component, while “Rent of Primary Residence” is a core component…suggesting that core inflation declined.

There isn’t much we can do about this. It’s clearly the right way to do the accounting, but because utility costs vary much more than rental costs it induces extra volatility into the rental series. However, eventually what will happen is either (a) household energy prices will decline again, causing primary rents to recover the drag, or (b) landlords will increase rents to capture what they see as a permanent increase in utilities prices. So, in the long run, this doesn’t impact the case for higher rents and OER – but in the short run, it’s frustrating because it’s hard to explain!

Now, core inflation outside of housing is also stagnant, and that’s surprising to me. Apparel prices have flatlined after increasing robustly in 2011 and 2012 and maintaining some momentum into mid-2013. Ditto for new cars. Both of those series I have expected to re-accelerate, and they have not. They, along with medical care commodities, are the biggest chunks of core goods in the CPI, which is why that series continues to droop. However, medical care commodities – which was driven lower in 2013 due to the effect of the sequester on Medicare payments – is starting to return to its prior level as that effect drops out (see chart, source BLS).

medcarecomm

We will see in a few hours what happens to median inflation. My back of the envelope calculation on the median suggests median CPI might actually rise this month in reverse of last month.

Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

February 20, 2014 Leave a comment

Here is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can follow me @inflation_guy:

  • Well, that was boring. CPI exactly as expected. Although frankly, most big shops expected +0.2% on core (me too).
  • Weird month where higher fuel prices seem to have taken edge off Shelter, but lower gasoline prices pushed Transp down!
  • Apparel down, and New cars & trucks down despite rising in PPI. So much for new PPI. Medical care commodities up though…
  • Medical Care as a whole +0.3%. Only 7.6% of the whole CPI, but reverses a recent trend caused by last year’s sequester.
  • Core services remained at 2.3% y/y, core goods declined to -0.3%. My proxy, though, is rising so this latter won’t continue.
  • Striking – core less shelter now at +0.933% y/y, the lowest since the real deflation crisis in 2004.
  • accelerating CPI categories: Housing, Med Care, Other (52.4%), Decel: Apparel, Educ/Comm (10.5%). Unch: 37.1%
  • Primary rents +2.88% y/y, virtually unch from +2.87%. But Owners’ Equiv Rent +2.517% from +2.488%.
  • New & Used cars and trucks under tremendous pressure, +0.3% y/y, and that’s 7.5% of core CPI. And Apparel (another 4%) has flatlined.

The reason that most big shops – and me too – expected +0.2% or even +0.3% on core, as opposed to the +0.13% that we got, boils down to three things: second, the housing part of core CPI, which is huge, is clearly accelerating and continues to do so. Second, core goods, which represents most of the rest, has been flat or deflating for a while, and normally that part of inflation is more mean-reverting.

The housing part of that view is working out. The Shelter subcomponent of Housing (which is ¾ of it, after extracting utilities and household furnishings and operations) is now rising at 2.58%, the fastest rate since 2008. Owners’ Equivalent Rent, the largest single component of the CPI, is at 2.52% y/y, and as I’ve illustrated often – here comes that chart again – there is every reason to expect this to continue. OER should be in the 3.3%-3.5% range by year-end.

morehousing

Core Goods, on the other hand, remains stuck in the mud. There was some reason to expect a rise in that index this month, as the Passenger Cars component of PPI rose +0.5% (but new vehicles in the CPI rose only 0.08% m/m), and the pharmaceuticals part of PPI was +2.7% (but only +0.9% in the CPI). In all likelihood, this suggests that core goods will move higher in the months ahead.

However, the weakness in Apparel and in vehicles has a commonality – those are sectors that are either sourced from non-US manufacturers or (in the case of vehicles) receive heavy competition from non-US manufacturers, and especially Japanese manufacturers in the case of autos. The recent strength of the USD with respect to the Yen and Yuan is not irrelevant here. Although early 2014 has seem some reversal in that trend with respect to the Yen, it’s not likely to have a serious reversal for a while – the Yen is going to keep getting weaker, and that will keep pressure on goods prices in the US.

Indeed, by one measure price dynamics in the US are closer to deflation than they have been since 2004. And it’s not a measure which should be taken lightly: core inflation, ex-shelter, is only 0.9% y/y, as the chart below (source: Enduring Investments) shows.

exhousing

In the mid-2000s, the Fed flirted much more with deflation than they thought they were, because the housing bubble hid the underlying dynamic. Conversely, in 2010 we weren’t really very close to deflation, but the fact that housing was collapsing made it appear that we were. You can see both of these episodes on the chart. It is possible that the 2004-type stealth deflation could be happening again, but I don’t think so for one big reason: in 2004, money growth was in the 4-5% range as the economy was recovering, which created disinflationary tendencies. But now, we’re coming off a period of 8-10% money growth, and it’s still at 6%. It’s much harder to get deflation in such a circumstance.

And, with rents rising smartly, there is almost no chance that core inflation ends 2014 lower than it currently is. I continued to expect core inflation to move towards 3% over the course of this year (and median CPI to reach that level).

Categories: CPI, Tweet Summary Tags: , ,
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,298 other followers

%d bloggers like this: