Twit or Treat?


I guess we have to add to the list of uncomfortable comparisons to 1999’s equity mania the Twitter IPO. A widely-known company with no earnings…and no visible way to produce any revenues of note, much less earnings…went public and promptly doubled. Hedge funds which were able to get in on the IPO allocation cheered this nice kick to their performance numbers, and the backers of the now-$25bln-company are surely elated. But the rest of us have got to be thinking about Pets.com.

It was an article by Hussman Funds (ht rich t) that got me thinking more deeply about these comparisons. Although the article was referred to me partly because of the insightful comments about the Phillips Curve, which echo similar comments I have made in the past, I kept reading to the end as I usually do when trapped in a Hussman article! While there are a number of us (including Hussman, Grantham, Arnott, e.g.) who have been concerned for a while about equity market valuations since we use similar metrics, I really haven’t been terribly concerned about the possibility of an imminent and steep market decline for a while, though I think returns from these levels over the next decade will be close to flat in real terms as they were after the 1999 peak. However, Hussman had me thinking about this.

I do think that there is one key difference from 1999, and that is that not everyone is talking about stocks. That is, not yet…the Twitter IPO might get us there – on Fox Business News today a young talking head (who was no more than 10 years old in 1999) made sure that viewers were informed that anyone could buy Twitter, just by calling their broker. (Not just anyone, though, could get in at the IPO price…a point the cub reporter neglected to mention).

The counter-argument to “is this a 1999 set-up?” takes two forms. The less-sophisticated form is “nuh-uh”, although usually said in a slightly more elaborate way that implies the questioner is a mindless, not to mention soulless, Communist who isn’t getting enough loving at home. The more-sophisticated argument is worth considering, but isn’t particularly soothing to me. This hypothesis is that this isn’t 1999, it’s 1997, before the parabolic blow-off and with lots of room left to run. It wasn’t as if there was any lack of skepticism about the stock market’s levels (which, sweetly, we considered lofty at the time):

“Is it possible that there is something fundamentally new about this current period that would warrant such complacency? Yes, it is possible. Markets may have become more efficient, competition is more global, and information technology has doubtless enhanced the stability of business operations. But, regrettably, history is strewn with visions of such “new eras” that, in the end, have proven to be a mirage. In short, history counsels caution.” – Alan Greenspan, February 26th, 1997

The bubble, of course, did not pop in 1997. It popped in 1999, after Greenspan had abandoned his prior skepticism (in late 1998, as he came to believe that “I do not claim that all market behavior is a rational response to changes in the real world. But most of it must be. For, were it otherwise, the relatively stable economic environments that have been evident among the major industrial countries over the generations would not be possible”).  Between 1997 and 1999, there was plenty of time for investors to make money, and as long as they realized they were taking money for the future and got out before 2000…alas, very few of them did.

But, speaking from experience, the 1997-1999 period was very lonely. While investors who gradually sold their long positions out in 1998 and 1999 did much better than the ones they were selling to, they were also very unpopular at cocktail parties. The bearish analysts were put on the street, begging for tuppence. Which, considering that most of them were in the United States, was also unsuccessful.

The 1999 bubble…and the later property bubble…also did not burst until the Fed was actually tightening policy. It is on this point that many bullish arguments depend, but it is a weak one I believe. To be sure, there is no chance that the Fed will be tightening policy any time soon. The taper is not going to happen until 2014Q2 at the earliest, and I think it will take until later in 2014, when inflation figures will become uncomfortable, before they will start pulling back on QE. Some observers believe it will be much later. A Wall Street Journal article on Wednesday detailed a recent research paper written by the head of the monetary affairs division at the Fed; it argued that it may make sense for the Fed to lower its Unemployment Rate threshold and said that “an ‘optimal’ policy might keep rates near zero as late as 2017.”

The activist Fed continues to be one of the biggest risks to the market and the economy. As a trader, I know that 90% of trading is just sitting there, waiting for the ‘fat pitch’ you can do something about. It boggles my mind that a central banker doesn’t sit around at least that much, considering that they know even less about the complexities of the global economy than I know about the complexities of the market. And, unlike the global economy, the market doesn’t fight back when I act on it.

I actually have a feeling that we won’t be worrying about those Unemployment thresholds, either the old ones or the ones proposed in that paper. As I wrote late last month, the expansion is getting a bit long in the tooth and I would not be surprised to see another recession looming in 2014. I don’t have any reason for that outlook other than the calendar, but sometimes these reasons become obvious only in hindsight.

In any event, though, I wouldn’t wait around for the Fed to be tightening. It isn’t overnight funding rates that I would worry about, but longer-term interest rates, and there has already been a warning shot fired that indicates the Fed is not wholly in control of those rates.

So, it may be too early to be out of equities. Maybe even a lot too early. But one thing I am sure of is that it isn’t too late. It is the latter condition, not the former, that is the most damaging to one’s financial position.

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  1. eric
    November 7, 2013 at 6:45 pm

    I thought of you when I read the Hussman piece.

    Funny you mention the “anyone can buy twitter” thing. I think the point goes even deeper than you give it credit for. It not only is a sign that everyone will be talking about stocks soon. I remember a similar conversation I had in circa 1998-9. Someone expressed the opinion that it was really hard to buy certain stocks. (pets.com, or whatever it was.) I was puzzled. I tried to explain to him that anyone could buy any stock they wanted–that the whole point of a market was to find a price such that every buyer could find a seller. He refused to believe me. It suddenly became clear why: he was _so_ convinced that owning these stocks was such a guaranteed path to great wealth that when he combined this belief with a good commonsensical belief that some things are too good to be true, he concluded that ordinary people couldnt own these stocks. I smell the same thing in the twitter comment.

    On to a serious point: I’m curious if you read the recently posted piece by ECRI about inflation. And if so, what do you make of it. Do you know much about how they computer their “future inflation gauges”?

    • November 8, 2013 at 8:47 am

      i haven’t read the ECRI piece. Do you have a link?

      ________________________________

  2. eric
    November 8, 2013 at 11:09 am

    Its not super informative if you don’t know anything about their model. But here goes:

    http://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-becoming-japan-inflation-us-eurozone-japan

    • November 8, 2013 at 12:42 pm

      With this stuff I always wonder why they show headline inflation. I understand it supports the notion that we’re nearing deflation, but folks it’s all gasoline! Core inflation is rising and median inflation never fell below 2%. It’s incredible.

      It’s always hard for me to power through an article when there’s such a blatant obtuseness at the start. 🙂

  3. Lee
    November 8, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    I’ve always thought that people managing the economy should be required to trade their own accounts to earn a living for a couple of years beforehand.

  4. HP Bunker
    November 8, 2013 at 4:08 pm

    But Lee, that would disqualify everyone currently “managing the economy”!

  1. November 8, 2013 at 7:08 am

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